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Updated 31 May 2004

Will Rising Temperatures Change the Date of Peak Runoff?



Climate change reports

One possible effect of global warming is a change in the time of year that runoff from snowmelt reaches its peak. Warmer winters and warmer springs could advance the date when the snowpack begins melting. The implications for the annual refill of reservoirs are obvious.

Two recent articles in the academic press address this issue:

As the West Goes Dry, by Robert F. Service, published in the 20 February 2004 issue of Science (http://www.sciencemag.org). The article is not free, but can be purchased online for $10.

Mitigating the Effects of climate Change on the water Resources of the Columbia River Basin, by Payne, Wood, Hamlet, Palmer, and Lettenmaier; published in the journal Climatic Change, 62; 233-256, 2004. Climatic Change (http://www.kluweronline.com/issn/0165-0009/) is not cheap -- an institutional subscription for 18 issues costs $1,976, and a copy of this report will cost you $25.

More information

A good place to start is with the University of Montana's Numerical Terradynamics Simulation Group's home page: http://www.ntsg.umt.edu/.

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